PSYCHOLOGY / DISCIPLINE by StuRenr

PSYCHOLOGY / DISCIPLINE

• Trade like you work for Goldman Sachs with a compliance department that will close out your bad positions and trades quickly and would then fire you
• Be a consultant to yourself, objectively look at what you’re doing
• Don’t be reckless, wild and impulsive
• Don’t be gullible - big players use derivatives to fake what they are doing and they plant takeover and other “stories”
• The market will tell YOU what is likely to happen next...trade what you see, not what you think - “don’t anticipate”...The market does not accommodate the majority...each moment is unique
• The market is not logical; with respect to news...the reverse may actually occur
• Avoid “happy ears”
• Be careful with “crowded trades”
• Don’t act out inner conflicts in the marketplace
• Avoid “FOMO” (fear of missing out)
• Don’t over trade
• Winning should not inflate you and losing should not deflate you

MONEY MANAGEMENT

• Money management, risk management, preservation of capital, discipline
• Account balance must go higher
• Save buying power
• Take gains out of account
• Take small losses, never let them get big. Your first loss is usually your best loss
• Write the Plan and stick with it - “hope is not a strategy” (entry, exit, risk management) stops (take small losses) / protection (calls, puts, etc.), hedges, pairs, conditional orders, bracket orders
• While you think you always know, be prepared for if you don’t
• Don’t ignore your Plan, your system, your signals, the chart, and the price action. Avoid all opinions, bias and predictions
• Don’t have the same stock in more than 1 account
• Optimal Trading Plan - to be flat at night
• Holding more than 1 week and you bought too high. Each day and week the market may be different
• Best to be out of the market 70% of the time; wait for “sitting ducks” to appear
• Let your winners run, move up stops. Don’t be greedy; you can always go back in
• Don’t add to a losing trade by averaging down
• A fool and his money are soon parted

SELECTION

• High probability "A" trades only - with the right set-up; a good trade jumps out at you from the chart
• Only take trades that match your edge
• What cycle is the stock in? Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, Markdown...Is it Tradeable, Waitable or Forgettable?
• Is it the right day for your sector, e.g., Pharma, Energy, Biotech, Tech, Commodities, etc?
• Will it be an up day, down day, choppy day, flat day, volatile day (e.g., Fed). Is your stock running in place? Is the market just grinding?
• Stock may not hit key support and/or key resistance today; build into the plan for the day
• Be aware of / be out: Earnings, Employment reports, Fed speeches, Fed decisions, oil reports, etc.
• Beginnings and ends of months are best
• Friday's may be tricky / bad to trade, especially options expiration
• Trade what’s in motion and with volume, sell when the “music has stopped”
• Trade the “tape” (time and sales)
• ETFs...how do the top 10 components look? How are all the top performers and bottom performers doing today? How are other ETFs of that sector doing?
• Ignore or severely temper analyst ratings
• Be a specialist in only one or a few stocks...stick to what you know and how it trades. Trade like you’re the market maker

APPROACH

• Watch false breakouts. Is it a pop and drop? Is it a pump and dump?
• Buy breakouts with volume
• Watch big reversals
• Buy the first pullback
• Buy and sell at extremes / support and resistance
• Leverage / watch VWAP for entries and exits
• Wait for the turn (with volume and conviction)
• Let them come to you, don’t chase, don’t force, have patience, have fear
• Scale / Accumulate – “scale in, scale out”
  • 2-3 days or 2-3 tranches (intraday) of scaling in buy's - same with scaling out
  • Minimum 2 buys 10 cents apart
• 5 waves on a stock by lunch, sell it
• If you think the move is over, it very possibly is. Take gains or set stops
• Sell pre and post market...generally don’t buy
• Don’t fight macro trends such as interest rates, regulations (e.g., drug pricing pressure), supply (oil), dollar
• Avoid market orders

CHARTING

• Chartists must put all bias aside and let the chart do the talking (observe as if not in the position) or we’ll only see what we want to see...be open to going in exactly the opposite direction (e.g., sell short instead)
• The market toys with those who use trend lines as their primary analysis tool; can break out or below commonly followed trend lines, only to reverse strongly the other way in order to throw the masses off its back.
• Trend and where in the channel - the trend is your friend, don’t trade against it / don’t always buy pullbacks, lows and counter trends
• Angle of ascent: buy ascending (e.g., 45 degrees), not descending
• Charts on various timeframes
• Support, Resistance, Moving Averages, Fibonacci, Volume
• Whole dollars are natural support and resistance
• Indicators/Oscillators: Bollinger Bands (10 day moving average moves above or below 20 day moving average mid-line), OBV, Balance of Power, Money Stream, RSI, ADX/ DMI+/DMI-, MACD, Price and Volume Trend, Volume Sizzle
• Bollinger bands provide awesome visual clues
• Big patterns: H&S, Inverse H&S, M, W, Cup and Handle, rounded bottoms, flags, wedges, triangles, pendants, double and triple tops and bottoms, Waves, symmetry, etc. For more info on the following, including chart examples:http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts7.asp

MARKET / TIMING ANALYSIS

• Futures
• Asia performance overnight
• How Europe closes
• Pre-Market activity
• Watch the “Generals” (Google, Netflix, Amazon, Priceline, Amgen, Google, Microsoft, others) and ETFs (GLD, XLE, USO, SMH, XBI, LABU, LABD, XLF, others)
• Watch the US Dollar (UUP, DXY futures); dollar up – metals, commodities down
• Oil: Open Outcry (pit session): 9:00 AM until 2:30 PM, ET
• COMEX/NYMEX Trading Hours - Gold: COMEX - 8:20 AM - 1:30 PM ET
• COMEX/NYMEX Trading Hours - Silver: COMEX 8:25 AM – 1:25 PM ET
• Impact of 10-year US Treasury
• Volatility Index (VIX)

NOTABLE REVERSAL TIMES

• 9:30 - 9:35 a.m.
• 9:50 - 10:10 a.m.
• 10:25 - 10:35 a.m.
• 11:15 a.m.
• 12:00 p.m.
• 12:45 p.m.
• 1:30 p.m.
• 2:15 p.m.
• 3:00 p.m.
• 3:30 p.m.

REFERENCE - PATTERNS

Patterns..cup and handle, head and shoulders, inverse head and shoulders, minor gap continuations, low volume ebbs, flags, pennants, wedges, etc.

For more info on the following, including chart examples: http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts7.asp

Chart analysis is the technique of using patterns formed on a securities chart to formulate buy and sell signals.

There are two types of chart patterns: reversal and continuation.

• A continuation pattern suggests that the prior trend will continue upon completion of the pattern
• A reversal pattern suggests that the prior trend will reverse upon completion of the pattern
• A head-and-shoulders top suggests a reversal in the prior uptrend
• An inverse head and shoulders suggests a reversal in the prior downtrend
• A cup-and-handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern that suggests a continuation of the prior uptrend
• A double top is a bearish reversal pattern, which suggests that the preceding up trend will reverse after confirmation of the pattern
• A double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern, which suggests that the prior downtrend will reverse
• There are three main types of triangle patterns - symmetrical, descending and ascending, which are constructed by converging trend lines
• A symmetrical triangle, which is formed when two similarly sloped trend lines converge, typically suggests a continuation of the prior trend
• A descending triangle, which is formed when a downward sloping trend line converges towards a horizontal support line, suggests a downward trend after completion of the pattern
• An ascending triangle, which is formed when an upward sloping trend line converges towards a horizontal resistance line, suggests an uptrend after completion of the pattern
• Flags and pennants are continuation patterns formed after a sharp price movement. The move consolidates, forming a flag shape or pennant share, and suggests another strong move in the same direction of the prior move upon completion
• A wedge chart pattern suggests a reversal in the prior trend when the price action moves outside of the converging trend lines in the opposite direction of the prior trend
• A gap is formed on a chart when there is an empty space between two time periods. Common gap patterns include: common, breakaway, runaway (measuring) and exhaustion
• A triple top is a reversal pattern formed when a security attempts to move past a level of resistance three times and fails
• Upon failure of the third attempt the trend is thought to reverse and move in a downward trend
• A triple bottom is a reversal pattern formed when a security attempts to move below an area of support three times but fails to do so. Upon failure of the third attempt below resistance the trend is thought to reverse and move upward
• A rounding bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that signals a shift from a downward trend to an upward trend