Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Trading check list

Have a plan; hope is not a strategy

Protect: Prepare for a Crash, don't be reckless, have shorts/puts/inverse ETFs, gold, be hedged, etc.

Stop losses

Protecting your capital is your first job.  Profit is second.  If you are down, always take the loss on a day trade - never decide to swing it overnight in hopes of a recovery the next day

Pick days that you know will trend and be good or for sure reverse etc.; choppy days and narrow range days may not be good

Challenges trading on Fridays including 3rd Friday of each month (options expiration)

Don’t chase

Be aware of clinical stage biotech’s, development stage companies, and others with un-established businesses/revenue streams that could go to zero

Trade what you see, not what you think - "Don't Anticipate"

Focus on stronger probabilities - Only the right set up...WAIT

Buy and sell at extremes

Wait for the turn

Know the short interest / days to cover (DTC)

Save buying power

Scale / Accumulate – “scale in, scale out”

EVENT ANALYSIS

Watch out for potential secondary offerings

Watch earnings dates, litigation and other events such as FDA decisions

Employment reports, Fed speeches, Fed decisions, oil reports, etc.

MARKET / TIMING ANALYSIS

Watch the “Generals” (Google, Netflix, Amazon, Priceline, Amgen, others)

Futures

What happened in Asia overnight

How Europe closes

Watch the US Dollar (UUP, futures); dollar up – metals, commodities down

Oil: Open Outcry (pit session): 9:00 AM until 2:30 PM, ET

COMEX/NYMEX Trading Hours - Gold: COMEX - 8:20 AM - 1:30 PM ET

COMEX/NYMEX Trading Hours - Silver: COMEX 8:25 AM – 1:25 PM ET

Impact of 10-year US Treasury

TICK, TRIN, Advance, Declines, McClellan oscillator, VIX and VIX volatility indices (VVIX)

TIMES OF DAY

Notable Reversal Times

9:30 - 9:35 a.m.

9:50 - 10:10 a.m.

10:25 - 10:35 a.m.

11:15 a.m.

12:00 p.m.

12:45 p.m.

1:30 p.m.

2:15 p.m.

3:00 p.m.

3:30 p.m.

Major Reversal Times

9:30 - 9:35 a.m.

9:50 - 10:10 a.m.

1:30 p.m.

2:15 p.m.

3:00 p.m.

4:01 p.m.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key oscillators / Chart Studies  OBV, ADX / -DI / +DI, RSI, Balance of Power, Ultimate Oscillator, Trend Quality, Parabolic SAR, PriceandvolumeTrend

Bollinger bands

Charts: various timeframes – monthly, weekly, daily, 60 minute, 15 minute, 5 minute, 1 minute, etc.

Angle of ascent: 45 degrees

Breakouts "with volume"

Fibonacci retracements

Know support and resistance numbers

Know the 50 day and 200 day moving averages; watch moving average crossovers

Support / Resistance / Volume

The trend is your friend

Where in the channel, or Bollinger bands

Trend lines

Waves

5 waves on a stock by lunch, sell it

Normal stocks don't pull back on big volume

Patterns..cup and handle, head and shoulders, inverse head and shoulders, minor gap continuations, low volume ebbs, flags, pennants, wedges, etc.

For more info on the following, including chart examples:  http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts7.asp

    Chart analysis is the technique of using patterns formed on a securities chart to formulate buy and sell signals.
    There are two types of chart patterns: reversal and continuation.
    A continuation pattern suggests that the prior trend will continue upon completion of the pattern.
    A reversal pattern suggests that the prior trend will reverse upon completion of the pattern.
    A head-and-shoulders top suggests a reversal in the prior uptrend.
    An inverse head and shoulders suggests a reversal in the prior downtrend.
    A cup-and-handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern that suggests a continuation of the prior uptrend.
    A double top is a bearish reversal pattern, which suggests that the preceding up trend will reverse after confirmation of the pattern.
    A double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern, which suggests that the prior downtrend will reverse.
    There are three main types of triangle patterns - symmetrical, descending and ascending, which are constructed by converging trend lines.
    A symmetrical triangle, which is formed when two similarly sloped trend lines converge, typically suggests a continuation of the prior trend.
    A descending triangle, which is formed when a downward sloping trend line converges towards a horizontal support line, suggests a downward trend after completion of the pattern.
    An ascending triangle, which is formed when an upward sloping trend line converges towards a horizontal resistance line, suggests an uptrend after completion of the pattern.
    Flags and pennants are continuation patterns formed after a sharp price movement. The move consolidates, forming a flag shape or pennant share, and suggests another strong move in the same direction of the prior move upon completion.
    A wedge chart pattern suggests a reversal in the prior trend when the price action moves outside of the converging trend lines in the opposite direction of the prior trend.
    A gap is formed on a chart when there is an empty space between two time periods. Common gap patterns include: common, breakaway, runaway (measuring) and exhaustion.
    A triple top is a reversal pattern formed when a security attempts to move past a level of resistance three times and fails. Upon failure of the third attempt the trend is thought to reverse and move in a downward trend.
    A triple bottom is a reversal pattern formed when a security attempts to move below an area of support three times but fails to do so. Upon failure of the third attempt below resistance the trend is thought to reverse and move upward.
    A rounding bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that signals a shift from a downward trend to an upward trend.

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